BANGKOK: Military-run Myanmar could be on the verge of a breakthrough
in the battle for democratic reform after moves towards dialogue by
the junta and detained opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi, analysts
say.

But they cautioned that history was not on the side of the opposition,
whose members have been sidelined, harassed and locked up over more
than four decades of military rule.

Aung San Suu Kyi on Friday was allowed to meet senior officials from
her National League for Democracy (NLD) party, the first such
face-to-face talks in more than three years.

She also met for a second time with Aung Kyi, a minister appointed to
liaise between the junta and the opposition following international
outrage over the deadly crackdown on pro-democracy protests in
September.

In a message read out early on Friday by UN special envoy Ibrahim
Gambari after he left Myanmar following his mission to push for
reforms, Aung San Suu Kyi said she was "ready to cooperate" with the
generals.

"This is the greatest opportunity ever since 1988 for all parties to
make concessions and move forward," said Win Min, a Myanmar analyst
based in Thailand, referring to an earlier pro-democracy uprising that
the junta crushed.

He warned, however, that Friday's talks alone were just a small step,
and the junta had a history of backing out of such dialogue.

Trevor Wilson, a former Australian ambassador to Myanmar, said the
meetings were a positive step, but only if they led to more
substantial results.

"Hopefully the NLD and the SPDC (the junta) can work out some kind of
modus vivendi together in relation to the referendum on the
constitution and elections," he told AFP by telephone from Australia.

The junta, officially known as the State Peace and Development
Council, must also stop arresting and harassing NLD members, he said.

"I think the past doesn't leave you to be very optimistic or hopeful
that this will work its way through," he warned. "It could be done but
it will take a lot of effort and understanding on all sides." Similar
optimism after 1990 elections, which the NLD won by a landslide, was
crushed when the junta refused to recognise the result and instead
entrenched its power and kept Aung San Suu Kyi under house arrest.

Likewise in 2004, talks aimed at involving Aung San Suu Kyi in the
generals' constitution-drafting process – a key part of their "road
map" to democracy – was abruptly halted. Without opposition
participation, the process has been branded a sham by Western nations.

"They got all the agreement and at the last minute (junta head)
General Than Shwe rejected it," said Win Min.

In one positive sign, Gambari has been invited back to Myanmar for
what would be his third visit to the isolated nation since the junta's
crackdown on protests in late September.

Initial indications from his recent visit had not been good. He failed
to secure a meeting with Than Shwe, and the information minister ruled
out a three-way meeting with the UN, junta and opposition.

But Gambari pursued his quiet diplomacy, meeting the prime minister in
the capital Naypyidaw and Aung San Suu Kyi in Yangon, with the United
Nations saying he made progress on establishing a dialogue between the
two sides.

Myanmar's harshest critic the United States, however, did not seem
satisfied with the result, and said it was "sorely disappointed" that
Gambari did not meet Than Shwe.

US national security spokesman Gordon Johndroe also said that Aung San
Suu Kyi must meet senior junta officials soon.

Another test for the junta will be the visit by UN human rights expert
Paulo Sergio Pinheiro, who is expected to fly into Myanmar – formerly
known as Burma – on Sunday.

Analysts however urged the international community to be patient, and
said diffusing decades of mistrust between the military regime and the
opposition was not going to happen overnight.

"No self-respecting individual in the world today wants to be seen as
dancing to the tune of the United States or China, for that matter,"
said Zarni, a Myanmar visiting fellow at Britain's Oxford University.

"So, instead of spitting out demands after demands, Washington should
shut up for a few months and let us the Burmese solve our own
problems."