Not since 1988 has the 45-year rule of the generals in Burma faced
such a determined challenge. Daily processions of saffron-clad monks,
a sit-in at a police station, and a nationwide network of protesting
bonzes calling for democratic change has jolted the junta.

Today, the Alliance of All Burma Monks invited ordinary citizens to
join them in the streets from the first time and more than 30,000
demonstrated in the capital, Rangoon.

The demonstrations now into their eighth day were triggered by a
doubling the price of oil. The average citizen of Rangoon can no
longer even afford a bus home. One-third of the children under the age
of five suffer malnutrition. Millions have been reduced to only one
meal a day. The tragedy of Burma is fast approaching African
dimensions of deprivation created by an oriental despotism..

After independence Burma, along with the Philippines, led South-East
Asia in literacy, education and development - far ahead of Malaysia,
Singapore and Thailand. But since the military coup staged in 1962 by
General Ne Win, a potentially wealthy country with abundant natural
resources, including oil and natural gas, has slithered backwards
under the guidance of a totally inept, kleptocratic and brutal junta.

On Saturday, 10,000 monks made a procession in Mandalay. In towns
across the country they have come out on to the streets braving the
dictatorship and challenging the state of fear that has ruled for
decades. Other protests are quickly nipped in the bud, activists
carted off to jail, and routinely tortured. Many have died in custody.

In Rangoon, the monks fearlessly swept past the police barricades
around the house of Aung San Suu Kyi, a Nobel Peace Prize laureate and
leader of the persecuted opposition party the National League for
Democracy, who has been held under house arrest ever since her
election victory in 1990. She held an impromptu meeting with the monks
and joined them in prayers. "The Lady" - as everyone calls her -
remains the one great hope for a new Burma.

A potent feature of the protests has been the declaration by the
monks' union of "patam nikkujjana kamma" - a boycott of alms from
members of the military regime, or simply overturning their bowls
instead of collecting food. One young monk justified this ban on the
armed forces as equivalent to excommunication in the Christian church.
This sanction includes a refusal to conduct funeral and weddings
services and a ban on other Buddhist ceremonies for members of the
military.

Attempts by the generals to curry favour with temples to offer alms,
and donate handsome gifts to senior abbots have failed to win the
blessing of the majority of monks.

Monks were prominent against British colonial rule in this
predominantly Buddhist country. Two well-known monks, U Wisara and U
Ottama, were imprisoned by the British for their nonviolent
resistance, and U Wisara died in jail after a hunger strike lasting
166 days.

In August 1988 monks helped to inspire a peaceful uprising against the
regime that came close ousting it, but the generals recovered and
ordered all-out suppression of pro-democracy crowds in the street.

In Burma the chances of any so-called "velvet revolution" as happened
recently in the Ukraine and in parts of Eastern Europe appears to be
highly unlikely. In 1988, besieged by massive popular protests, the
generals ordered their troops to shoot unarmed demonstrators in their
thousands.

Since 1988 bloodbath the generals have massively expanded their army
and security services, and switched the capital from Rangoon to the
obscure ultra-secure town of Naypyitaw, well-protected from the people
that they rule. They have never deviated from their iron-fisted
determination to cling on to power despite international lobbying for
dialogue with the opposition - intimidated but never silenced.

But after the military, it is the Buddhist monks who represent the
most important institution in Burma today - revered by almost
everybody. Are we heading for another showdown? The civilian
population has enthusiastically cheered the stand taken by the monks
but remains wary of what happened in 1988.

If massive bloodshed is to be averted, the EU, Buddhist countries and
South-East Asian nations all need to act now, putting human rights
before trade, and to act in respect the heroism of buddhist monks in
Burma. With the junta still a little rattled by these rolling
demonstrations of defiance there is a rare window of opportunity for
the world to help the Burmese people. If the EU and Burma's neighbours
were to speak with one voice, warning the regime against another 1988,
it could make a difference.

Sanctions can only work where there is an overwhelming consensus of
nations about the pariah status of a regime. South Africa under
apartheid was the classic example. Just as the Zimbabwe disaster
should be on the conscience of Africa, so Burma is the special
responsibility of South-East Asian nations (Asean). The generals need
to be told that more atrocities will result in punishment: to kick
them out of Asean; a suspension of all tourist links. And it is above
all the voice of Asian countries - Asean, India and China - that
should be heading efforts to avert a disaster.